The reason why "Big Fed + Minister of Finance" repeatedly insisted that the economy "not recession" | Forum

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JIRAPORN
JIRAPORN Sep 8 '22


After the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the US Department of Commerce Announcingเกมยิงปลาthe preliminary GDP figures for the second quarter of this year that it contracted 0.9%. Technically, the economy is considered a recession because the first quarter was negative 1.6%, so it is considered a contraction for two consecutive quarters, which is considered a recession. However, the agency The official declaration of a recession is the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which is expected to be several months before the NBER announces the status of the GDP.


In the meantime, it is left to the views of analysts and economists, each interpreting for himself. Whether the US economy is recession or not after the word "recession" has covered the United States since the Federal Reserve (Fed) continued to raise interest rates to curb inflation.



U.S. Q2 GDP was announced on July 28, 2022, just one day after the Fed raised interest rates by 0.75%, but both the Fed and the Treasury seem confident that the economy is not a recession, according to Jerome Powell. “The Fed chairman said after the Fed meeting on July 27 that a recession must be a condition where many industries contract together for more than two months, but that is not currently a recession. Because many segments are still strong, especially employment.


US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and former Fed chairman who preceded Powell. also issued a press release on July 28 in the same way. It states that although GDP is negative for 2 consecutive quarters, the economy is not recession. but in the condition "Transition"


“A recession means widespread economic weakness, layoffs, and a lot of business shutdowns. Household finances deteriorated and private sector activity slowed. But we don't see such a thing right now. What it is now is that there is continuous employment. Household finances remain strong. Consumers are also spending and the business sector is growing.”


The US Treasury secretary pointed out that The US economy enters a new phase of recovery. It focuses on consistent and stable growth without losing the growth that has occurred over the past 18 months. He stressed that keeping inflation low is the government's top priority to protect Americans affected by global price pressures.